Selected Publications
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'Climate Communication: Bringing it All Together' (2015) (Author)
Poster presentation at the UNESCO 'Our Common Future Under Climate Change International Science Conference' in Paris, July 2015, the largest scientific forum about climate change ahead of CoP21. You can watch the conference final address here. Ref. (McCarthy, R., 2015: "Climate Communication: Bringing It All Together", Met Office, presented at Our Common Future Under Climate Change Conference, Paris, July 2015) 'Drivers and Impacts of Seasonal Weather in the UK' (2014) (Joint lead co-ordinating author) The UK has seen a run of seasonal weather over recent years that has had impacts and led to disruption across the country. The question for climate science is whether this seasonal weather is only part of the natural variability we expect, or if there is any connection to our changing climate. This synthesis paper investigates the role of natural variability and climate change in shaping these seasons. Ref. Met Office., 2014: "Too hot, too dry, too wet, too cold: Drivers and impacts of seasonal weatherin the UK" 'The recent pause in Global Warming' (2013) (Joint lead co-ordinating author)
Global mean surface temperatures rose rapidly from the 1970s, but have been relatively flat over the most recent 15 years to 2013. This has prompted speculation that human induced global warming is no longer happening, or at least will be much smaller than predicted. Others maintain that this is a temporary pause and that temperatures will again rise at rates seen previously. This set of three reports address the recent pause in global warming and seek to answer:
Met Office., 2013: "The recent pause in global warming(2): What are the potential causes?" Met Office., 2013: "The recent pause in global warming(1): What do the observations tell us?" Climate Change and the UK railway network (2013) (co-author)
Great Britain’s main line railway network is known to experience various temperature-related impacts, e.g. track buckling and overhead power line sag at high ambient temperatures. Climate change could alter the frequency of occurrence of these impacts. This paper investigates climate change impacts on various temperature-related issues, identified during workshops with rail industry specialists to support a climate risk assessment for the rail industry. Ref : Palin, E.J., Thornton, H.E., Mathison, C.T. et al. Climatic Change (2013) 120: 71. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0810-8 23 Country-Specific Climate Reports (2011) (co-ordinating author and reviewer on all)
Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is essential for informing both adaptation strategies and actions to avoid dangerous levels of climate change. In April 2011, the Met Office were asked by the United Kingdom's Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change to begin a project to compile scientifically robust and impartial information on the physical impacts of climate change for more than 20 countries. Each report contains:
International Dimensions of Climate Change (2011) (co-author Resources and Commodities)
The report examines the risks to the UK from climate change impacts in other parts of the world up to 2030 and beyond. It identifies the main threats and challenges to the UK that are likely to arise from the impacts of global climate change, and highlights where the UK can build on its strengths to respond. It focuses on risks in the following areas:
Migration and Global Environmental Change (2011) (UK Government Reviewer)
This report considers how profound changes in environmental conditions such as flooding, drought and rising sea levels will influence and interact with patterns of global human migration between now and 2060. It examines global migration trends and internal migration trends within developing countries. The findings have implications for issues that are critical for policy-makers, now and in the future, including;
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